A nonstationary extreme value distribution for analysing the cessation of karst spring discharge          下载免费PDF全文

Yan Liu  Yonghong Hao  Yonghui Fan  Tongke Wang  Xueli Huo  Youcun Liu  Tian‐Chyi J. Yeh 《水文研究》2014,28(20):5251-5258

The effects of climate change and population growth in recent decades are leading us to consider their combined and potentially extreme consequences, particularly regarding hydrological processes, which can be modeled using a generalized extreme value (GEV) distribution. Most of the GEV models were based on a stationary assumption for hydrological processes, in contrast to the nonstationary reality due to climate change and human activities. In this paper, we present the nonstationary generalized extreme value (NSGEV) distribution and use it to investigate the risk of Niangziguan Springs discharge decreasing to zero. Rather than assuming the location, scale, and shape parameters to be constant as one might do for a stationary GEV distribution analysis, the NSGEV approach can reflect the dynamic processes by defining the GEV parameters as functions of time. Because most of the GEV model is designed to evaluate maxima (e.g. flooding, represented by positive numbers), and spring discharge cessation is a ?minima’, we deduced an NSGEV model for minima by applying opposite numbers, i.e. negative instead of positive numbers. The results of the model application to Niangziguan Springs showed that the probability of zero discharge at Niangziguan Springs will be 1/80 in 2025, and 1/10 in 2030. After 2025, the rate of decrease in spring discharge will accelerate, and the probability that Niangziguan Springs will cease flowing will dramatically increase. The NSGEV model is a robust method for analysing karst spring discharge. Copyright © 2013 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.  相似文献   

基于空间插值的浙江省城市流时空演变特征研究          下载免费PDF全文

魏国恩  贺清云  朱翔  欧阳晓 《干旱区地理》2019,42(1):215--222

为了探寻发达省份内城市间相互作用的时空特征，该文以浙江省为样本单元，选取2005、2010年和2015年3个时间截面，采用反距离权重法和空间插值手段，从城市流强度视角展开了实证分析。结果表明：（1） 城市间的联系在不断加强，期间城市流强度值随时间的推移而整体得到提升，空间上由初始的“中心点”通过发展扩散向“中心域”转变，中心城市的辐射带动作用开始发挥成效。（2）结构上呈现出相对稳定的北高南低的分布格局，以杭州市为龙头，宁波为副核心，温州、绍兴、舟山为重要节点的多中心城市网络结构雏形初步形成。（3） 城市流强度的空间分异特征分析明显，但分异程度有了些许的改善，侧面说明空间上由初始的“中心点”通过发展扩散向“中心域”转变的基本观点。最后就浙江省如何加强省内城市间“流”的规模性、区域协调性和可持续性展开了讨论。  相似文献   

压裂微震数据初至拾取的时频谱熵法     

田雅男  王环宇  王鑫  黄佳俊  章强 《吉林大学学报(地球科学版)》2020,50(4):1219-1227

在油气田开发过程中，微震监测是获得水力压裂引起裂缝分布的一种较为有效的方法。微震的定位成像与裂缝解释需要利用有效微震信号位置，而微震信号具有低信噪比的特点，传统信号拾取方法无法有效实现较低信噪比条件下初至时刻的准确拾取。本文提出一种基于时频谱熵的初至拾取新方法，该方法首先通过S变换获取含噪信号的时频谱；然后对谱内各个采样点沿频率方向进行分帧操作，并计算每帧频段内的近似负熵值，以最小近似负熵值作为该谱点的负熵值；最后沿时间方向比较各谱点的负熵值，最小值对应的时刻即为初至时刻。本文利用不同信噪比的合成地震数据对该方法进行效果验证，并与长短时窗能量比（STA/LTA）法进行拾取结果对比，结果表明：信噪比在-5 dB时，两种方法拾取效果都很好；信噪比在-10 dB时，时频谱熵法拾取效果更好。时频谱熵法更适合低信噪比情况下的信号初至拾取。  相似文献   

基于GIS的“一带一路”地区气温插值方法比较研究     

杨艳昭  郎婷婷  张超  贾琨 《地球信息科学学报》2020,22(4):867-876

“一带一路”倡议是新时期中国为加强对外开放提出的全球化合作倡议,资源环境的优化配置对全球化发展意义重大。气温作为重要的基础数据和输入要素,对其进行空间化处理是实现大尺度区域资源环境优化配置的前提。本文基于地理信息技术（GIS）,运用距离平方反比法（IDS）、协同克里格法（CK）、回归距离平方反比法（RIDS）和回归协同克里格法（RCK）,对“一带一路”地区1980—2017年的2679个气象站点的月平均气温和年平均气温数据进行插值,获得了“一带一路”地区10 km分辨率的气温空间分布数据。交叉验证结果表明：① IDS、CK、RIDS和RCK插值法在整体上均较好地展示了“一带一路”地区气温的地理空间分布规律,4种插值方法的月均气温的均方根误差分别在1.93~2.43、1.78~2.14、1.31~2.23和1.23~1.92 ℃之间;年均气温的均方根误差分别为1.94、1.83、1.37和1.27 ℃;② 在“一带一路”地区,加入协变量分析的CK插值精度整体优于IDS,并且削弱了IDS的极值现象;③ RIDS和RCK对年均气温的插值精度分别较IDS和CK提高了29.4%和30.6%,表明加入地理要素并进行残差修正的插值精度得到了进一步提高。总体来看,RCK插值法对气温数据的插值精度最高,可以考虑将此方法作为“一带一路”地区温度等气象要素的插值方法。  相似文献   

Spatial Characteristics and Controlling Factors of the Strikeslip Fault Zones in the Northern Slope of Tazhong Uplift,Tarim Basin: Insight from 3D Seismic Data     

HAN Xiaoying  TANG Liangjie  DENG Shang  CAO Zicheng 《《地质学报》英文版》2020,94(2):516-529

The detailed characteristics of the Paleozoic strike-slip fault zones developed in the northern slope of Tazhong uplift are closely related to hydrocarbon explorations. In this study, five major strike-slip fault zones that cut through the Cambrian-Middle Devonian units are identified, by using 3D seismic data. Each of the strike-slip fault zones is characterized by two styles of deformation, namely deeper strike-slip faults and shallower en-echelon faults. By counting the reverse separation of the horizon along the deeper faults, activity intensity on the deeper strike-slip faults in the south is stronger than that on the northern ones. The angle between the strike of the shallower en-echelon normal faults and the principal displacement zone(PDZ) below them is likely to have a tendency to decrease slightly from the south to the north, which may indicate that activity intensity on the shallower southern en-echelon faults is stronger than that on the northern ones. Comparing the reverse separation along the deeper faults and the fault throw of the shallower faults, activity intensity of the Fault zone S1 is similar across different layers, while the activity intensity of the southern faults is larger than that of the northern ones. It is obvious that both the activity intensity of the same layer in different fault zones and different layers in the same fault zone have a macro characteristic in that the southern faults show stronger activity intensity than the northern ones. The Late Ordovician décollement layer developed in the Tazhong area and the peripheral tectonic events of the Tarim Basin have been considered two main factors in the differential deformation characteristics of the strike-slip fault zones in the northern slope of Tazhong uplift. They controlled the differences in the multi-level and multi-stage deformations of the strike-slip faults, respectively. In particular, peripheral tectonic events of the Tarim Basin were the dynamic source of the formatting and evolution of the strike-slip fault zones, and good candidates to accommodate the differential activity intensity of these faults.  相似文献   

冀中坳陷中部现今热岩石圈厚度及地热学意义探讨     

崔悦  朱传庆  邱楠生  唐博宁  郭飒飒 《地质学报》2020,94(7):1960-1969

热岩石圈厚度是研究盆地的构造演化和板块动力学的重要参数,本文通过实测数据构建地壳分层模型,根据热传导的基本原理,计算了冀中坳陷中部的Moho面温度以及热岩石圈厚度,并探讨其地热学意义。结果表明:冀中坳陷中部的Moho面温度分布在500～600℃,西南侧整体温度较东北部高,热岩石圈厚度介于102～122km,其平面展布特征与华北克拉通热岩石圈厚度西厚东薄的特征相吻合,为华北克拉通受太平洋板块西向俯冲导致东部遭受破坏提供了依据,并且较薄的岩石圈使热流更易传导到地壳浅部,成为了该地区热异常的成因背景。  相似文献   

Adsorption Mechanism and Kinetic Characterization of Bituminous Coal under High Temperatures and Pressures in the Linxing-Shenfu Area     

TAO Chuanqi  WANG Yanbin  LI Yong  NI Xiaoming  GAO Xiangdong 《《地质学报》英文版》2020,94(2):399-408

The majority of coalbed methane(CBM) in coal reservoirs is in adsorption states in coal matrix pores. To reveal the adsorption behavior of bituminous coal under high-temperature and high-pressure conditions and to discuss the microscopic control mechanism affecting the adsorption characteristics, isothermal adsorption experiments under hightemperature and high-pressure conditions, low-temperature liquid nitrogen adsorption-desorption experiments and CO2 adsorption experiments were performed on coal samples. Results show that the adsorption capacity of coal is comprehensively controlled by the maximum vitrinite reflectance(Ro, max), as well as temperature and pressure conditions. As the vitrinite reflectance increases, the adsorption capacity of coal increases. At low pressures, the pressure has a significant effect on the positive effect of adsorption, but the effect of temperature is relatively weak. As the pressure increases, the effect of temperature on the negative effect of adsorption gradually becomes apparent, and the influence of pressure gradually decreases. Considering pore volumes of pores with diameters of 1.7-100 nm, the peak volume of pores with diameters 10-100 nm is higher than that from pores with diameters 1.7-10 nm, especially for pores with diameters of 40-60 nm, indicating that pores with diameters of 10-100 nm are the main contributors to the pore volume. The pore specific surface area shows multiple peaks, and the peak value appears for pore diameters of 2-3 nm, indicating that this pore diameter is the main contributor to the specific surface area. For pore diameters of 0.489-1.083 nm, the pore size distribution is bimodal, with peak values at 0.56-0.62 nm and 0.82-0.88 nm. The adsorption capability of the coal reservoir depends on the development degree of the supermicroporous specific surface area, because the supermicroporous pores are the main contributors to the specific pore area. Additionally, the adsorption space increases as the adsorption equilibrium pressure increases. Under the same pressure, as the maximum vitrinite reflectance increases, the adsorption space increases. In addition, the cumulative reduction in the surface free energy increases as the maximum vitrinite reflectance increases. Furthermore, as the pressure increases, the surface free energy of each pressure point gradually decreases, indicating that as the pressure increases, it is increasingly difficult to adsorb methane molecules.  相似文献   

榍石LA-SF-ICP-MS U-Pb定年及对结晶和封闭温度的指示   总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1  

赵令浩  曾令森  詹秀春  胡明月  袁继海  孙冬阳  张立飞 《岩石学报》2020,36(10):2983-2994

榍石富含U、Th，贫Pb，是U-Pb定年的理想矿物之一。本文采用激光剥蚀-高分辨等离子体质谱建立榍石U-Pb定年方法，采用25~30μm激光斑束，准确测定榍石U-Pb标准样品BLR-1（~1048Ma）、OLT-1（~1014Ma）和Pakistan（~21.4Ma），以及年轻榍石样品（<100Ma）U-Pb年龄，提高了检测准确性和空间分辨率。综合对比共生锆石和榍石U-Pb年龄、榍石颗粒微量元素和U-Pb年龄环带及不同成分岩浆岩（SiO₂含量48.1%~77.0%）中岩浆榍石的结晶温度，结果表明：岩浆演化过程中，榍石具有宽泛的结晶温度（600~900℃，峰值~750℃），主要集中于岩浆演化中晚期结晶，榍石U-Pb同位素封闭温度接近或略低于锆石，因此同一岩浆体系中锆石与榍石的年龄差异可能反映了该熔体较晚达到榍石饱和，而非熔体热演化历史或封闭温度信息。  相似文献   

低空无人飞艇航测相机稳定平台控制方法     

杨应  刘凤珠  翟曦 《测绘通报》2019,(11):64-68,108

针对低空无人飞艇航空遥感系统平台姿态稳定问题，以及现有稳定平台用于无人飞艇航测系统存在的困难，提出了基于轻小型低精度GNSS/IMU系统和PID算法的三轴稳定平台控制方法。该系统结合双GPS轻小型组合GNSS/IMU系统，采用分离相机和GNSS/IMU系统控制方式，采用PID控制方法，利用STM32控制芯片电路实现稳定平台的控制，解决无人飞艇航测系统相机姿态稳定问题。最后通过飞行试验验证了该系统的稳定性。试验结果表明，该方法能够满足相机系统的俯仰和翻滚角度及航偏角度控制的要求，能够有效隔离无人飞艇姿态的不稳定对成像系统的影响，对于提高无人飞艇航测系统成图精度有重要意义。  相似文献   

COSMO-SkyMed颜色变换强度RC法南京建设用地变化检测     

张涛  王源  陈富龙  周伟  胡祺 《测绘通报》2019,(11):74-78,84

基于非局部滤波的SAR强度RC合成变化检测法对小图斑、线型地物等动态监测灵敏，且对数据获取无时空基线要求，在多云多雨城市地表要素变化检测中具备潜力。本文研究以多时相SAR强度RC合成图为数据源，提出一种基于色彩空间变换的变化图斑半自动提取方法，即通过色彩空间转换、训练样本选取、监督分类影像分割、变化区域提取4步骤，可实现基于SAR强度图的城市建设用地动态监测与图斑高效更新。选取南京河西新城与江北新区为示范，以最优参数配置（3特征向量与10样本类别）进行试验，实现了优于88%的建设用地查准率指标。  相似文献